Meltdown in Higher Education: This Has Never Happened Before

You can read the full paper below or download it in PDF format here: Meltdown in Higher Education: U.S.

Tom Mortenson, Senior Scholar
The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education
tom@postsecondary.org
December 26, 2023

In 2021 there were 15.4 million undergraduate students enrolled in American higher education according to the National Center for Education Statistics. Back in 2012 the NCES had projected there would be 20.6 million undergraduates enrolled by 2021. Between 2010 and 2021 5.1 million students that had been expected in college decided not to enroll. They were not denied admission by institutions. Nor was this decline driven by declining demographics. These 5.1 million students chose not to enroll in college. This has never happened before.

See image above: Actual and Projected Total Undergraduate Enrollment in Degree-Seeking Institutions 1970 to 2021

The consequences of this staggering 5.1 million student loss have had predictable and measurable consequences on the nation’s higher education system. Higher education in the United States is now in full-scale meltdown. Since about 2010 while undergraduate enrollments have been steadily and substantially declining, funding has been shrinking, faculty are being laid off, programs are being eliminated and campuses have been closing.

Over the last decade:
College participation rates for recent high school leavers have declined from 62.0% in 2009 to 52.6% in 2022. Compared to the 2009 rate, 332,500 fewer high school graduates enrolled in college after high school. This has never happened before.

View the entire paper in PDF reader below.